Saint Joseph's

Conference:	A10
Expected RPI:	147.0
Current RPI:	147
Expected SOS:	119
Current SOS:	119
Current Record:	16-16
Expected Record:	16-16
Current Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Conf Record:	11-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	10-4
Current OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC Record:	5-7
Expected OOC RPI:	198
Expected OOC SOS:	122

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
16-16	147.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Saint Joseph's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Toledo (75.0)	MAC	A	98-87	L	0%
11-13	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	82-86	W	100%
11-18	Princeton (226.0)	Ivy	H	71-58	W	100%
11-23	Washington St. (179.0)	P12	N	75-71	L	0%
11-24	Harvard (117.0)	Ivy	N	71-77	L	0%
11-26	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	N	69-74	W	100%
11-29	Bucknell (80.0)	Pat	H	83-70	W	100%
12-2	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	53-94	L	0%
12-9	Temple (52.0)	Amer	A	81-78	L	0%
12-17	Maine (338.0)	AE	H	72-59	W	100%
12-20	St. John's (92.0)	BE	N	77-73	L	0%
12-30	George Washington (195.0)	A10	A	70-64	L	0%
1-3	VCU (135.0)	A10	H	87-81	W	100%
1-6	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	H	85-78	W	100%
1-10	George Mason (201.0)	A10	A	81-79	L	0%
1-14	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	A	72-69	L	0%
1-17	Dayton (146.0)	A10	H	81-65	W	100%
1-20	Fordham (290.0)	A10	H	68-46	W	100%
1-24	St. Bonaventure (24.0)	A10	A	70-67	L	0%
1-27	Penn (112.0)	Ivy	N	67-56	L	0%
1-31	Saint Louis (148.0)	A10	H	59-60	L	0%
2-3	La Salle (202.0)	A10	A	81-78	L	0%
2-6	Davidson (47.0)	A10	A	91-62	L	0%
2-10	Massachusetts (240.0)	A10	H	85-73	W	100%
2-14	Fordham (290.0)	A10	A	55-71	W	100%
2-17	Duquesne (259.0)	A10	H	82-75	W	100%
2-21	George Mason (201.0)	A10	H	76-79	L	0%
2-24	Richmond (176.0)	A10	A	70-72	W	100%
2-27	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	A	48-78	W	100%
3-3	La Salle (202.0)	A10	H	78-70	W	100%
3-9	George Mason (201.0)	A10	N	68-49	W	100%
3-10	Rhode Island (19.0)	A10	N	90-87	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Saint Joseph's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Saint Joseph's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Saint Joseph's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Saint Joseph's	A10	26.17	26.17	49.28	49.28	-0.38	-0.38
George Mason	A10	5.27	5.27	46.67	46.67	-0.35	-0.35
Massachusetts	A10	3.93	3.93	38.71	38.71	-0.89	-0.89
La Salle	A10	3.88	3.88	40.00	40.00	-0.78	-0.78
Rhode Island	A10	3.80	3.80	80.00	80.00	2.28	2.28
Fordham	A10	3.76	3.76	31.03	31.03	-1.43	-1.43
St. Bonaventure	A10	3.73	3.73	80.00	80.00	2.24	2.24
George Washington	A10	2.35	2.35	43.75	43.75	-0.29	-0.29
Davidson	A10	2.34	2.34	64.52	64.52	0.68	0.68
VCU	A10	2.32	2.32	56.25	56.25	0.29	0.29
Richmond	A10	2.29	2.29	38.71	38.71	-0.52	-0.52
Saint Louis	A10	2.24	2.24	48.39	48.39	-0.07	-0.07
Dayton	A10	2.24	2.24	46.67	46.67	-0.15	-0.15
Duquesne	A10	2.22	2.22	51.61	51.61	0.07	0.07
Penn	Ivy	1.84	1.84	73.33	73.33	0.86	0.86
Harvard	Ivy	1.82	1.82	55.17	55.17	0.19	0.19
Villanova	BE	1.71	1.71	87.88	87.88	1.30	1.30
Princeton	Ivy	1.69	1.69	44.44	44.44	-0.19	-0.19
Temple	Amer	1.68	1.68	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Maine	AE	1.66	1.66	13.79	13.79	-1.20	-1.20
Bucknell	Pat	1.66	1.66	75.76	75.76	0.85	0.85
St. John's	BE	1.61	1.61	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Toledo	MAC	1.59	1.59	65.62	65.62	0.50	0.50
Illinois Chicago	Horz	1.56	1.56	51.72	51.72	0.05	0.05
Sacramento St.	BSky	1.56	1.56	17.24	17.24	-1.02	-1.02
Washington St.	P12	1.56	1.56	36.67	36.67	-0.42	-0.42
Providence	BE	0.24	0.24	61.76	61.76	0.06	0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.23	0.23	40.74	40.74	-0.04	-0.04
Yale	Ivy	0.23	0.23	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Holy Cross	Pat	0.22	0.22	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.21	0.21	23.08	23.08	-0.11	-0.11
Columbia	Ivy	0.21	0.21	26.92	26.92	-0.10	-0.10
Brown	Ivy	0.21	0.21	38.46	38.46	-0.05	-0.05
Vermont	AE	0.20	0.20	78.79	78.79	0.12	0.12
Lafayette	Pat	0.19	0.19	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Butler	BE	0.17	0.17	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Georgetown	BE	0.17	0.17	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.17	0.17	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Xavier	BE	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Marquette	BE	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.12	0.12	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Tulane	Amer	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.12	0.12	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Boston University	Pat	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
DePaul	BE	0.12	0.12	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Auburn	SEC	0.12	0.12	78.12	78.12	0.07	0.07
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.10	0.10	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Miami FL	ACC	0.10	0.10	70.97	70.97	0.04	0.04
Detroit	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
UMass Lowell	AE	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Oregon St.	P12	0.10	0.10	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.10	0.10	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Northeastern	CAA	0.10	0.10	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Miami OH	MAC	0.10	0.10	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.10	0.10	14.29	14.29	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.10	0.10	93.94	93.94	0.09	0.09
Buffalo	MAC	0.10	0.10	75.76	75.76	0.05	0.05
Niagara	MAAC	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
James Madison	CAA	0.10	0.10	29.03	29.03	-0.04	-0.04
Creighton	BE	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.09	0.09	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
Milwaukee	Horz	0.08	0.08	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.14	32.14	-0.03	-0.03
Manhattan	MAAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	32.35	32.35	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.08	0.08	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Oakland	Horz	0.08	0.08	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Oregon	P12	0.08	0.08	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
BYU	WCC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Stony Brook	AE	0.08	0.08	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.07	0.07	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Florida St.	ACC	0.07	0.07	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.07	0.07	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Lehigh	Pat	0.07	0.07	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Minnesota	B10	0.07	0.07	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.07	0.07	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Cincinnati	Amer	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Drexel	CAA	0.07	0.07	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Houston	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Iona	MAAC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.07	0.07	16.67	16.67	-0.05	-0.05
Nevada	MWC	0.07	0.07	79.41	79.41	0.04	0.04
UCF	Amer	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Wichita St.	Amer	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Georgia St.	SB	0.07	0.07	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Ohio	MAC	0.07	0.07	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.07	0.07	25.00	25.00	-0.04	-0.04
Georgia	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Western Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Navy	Pat	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.07	0.07	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.07	0.07	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.05	0.05	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.05	0.05	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.05	0.05	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.05	0.05	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
UMBC	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
UC Davis	BW	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Francisco	WCC	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Utah	P12	0.05	0.05	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas St.	B12	0.05	0.05	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
College of Charleston	CAA	0.05	0.05	77.42	77.42	0.03	0.03
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
TCU	B12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina	ACC	0.05	0.05	71.43	71.43	0.02	0.02
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Army	Pat	0.05	0.05	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Cal Poly	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Boise St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
North Dakota	BSky	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
UCLA	P12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.02	0.02	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Charlotte	CUSA	0.02	0.02	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.02	0.02	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.02	0.02	78.79	78.79	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.02	0.02	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.02	0.02	80.65	80.65	0.01	0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Missouri	SEC	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	82.76	82.76	0.02	0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	83.33	83.33	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.02	0.02	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.02	0.02	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.02	0.02	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SMU	Amer	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Stetson	ASun	0.02	0.02	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.02	0.02	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.02	0.02	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Bowling Green	MAC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Hampton	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.02	0.02	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.02	0.02	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Winthrop	BSth	0.02	0.02	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Arkansas	SEC	0.02	0.02	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.02	0.02	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.00	0.00
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.02	0.02	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.02	0.02	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.02	0.02	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01